What caused the present situation in Ukraine and what actually the situation itself consist in? It’s not 2004 first of all and all analogies are so far just in some resemblance of TV “pictures”. But it’s so far. What is similar in this situation with 2004 it’s the beginning of exceeding legal margin. If the dissolution of the Parliament is fearful? No. Can early elections to the Supreme Rada frighten anybody? No. It’s evident, that the main subjects of the political game will pass successfully. Both Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Timoshenko will obtain of these elections more than a year ago. The communists are not afraid of the elections by definition, since the Communist party is not a party, but faith. As to the socialist Alexander Moroz, he is an experienced politician and will obviously invent something. But as to “Our Ukraine”, it’s it that will become food for Timoshenko and Moroz.
“Our Ukraine” is the party the most unready for the elections. If Vyacheslav Kirilenko remains its leader, he does not know how to do it. If Yury Lutsenko is at the head of NSNU, he is the politician of the same level as Timoshenko (but worse quality). Thus the electors of "Our Ukraine” will have a tremendous choice between Timoshenko and two representatives of the Socialist Party –Moroz and Lutsenko.
The question is – why President Yushchenko let to treat his own party so severely? The answer is clear – he is not able to protect it. The consultations which took place between Yushchenko and Timoshenko led to one simple point, a construction of blackmail – “if you don’t dissolve the Parliament – the BUT will consider themselves free of any obligations and will vote together with the regions”.
How many deputies could Kirilenko and Bessmertny keep in such situation as members of their faction “Our Ukraine”? The fact, that Yulia was able to initiate the impeachment to President did not make his doubts. And this is the conclusion -the main author of today’s events in Ukraine is Mrs. Timoshehko. The main issue is that she is not interested in simply parliamentary elections. The BUT and the Party of regions will obtain more than a year ago, but Yulia however does not win. It means that she will continue to keep the situation unstable. Either through offering a Referendum on changes in the State order, or through campaign on falsification these elections, or pushing president to declare the state of emergency with direct presidential administration and dismissal of the Cabinet of Ministers. All this in one or another way will let Yulia Vladimirovna’s to “enter” the Cabmin.
What had happened to Yulia Vladimirovna and what had moved her to such actions? Here, we have to recall, that it was exactly she who had insisted in 2004 to withdraw the norm of imperative mandate from the text of the Constitution. And now she is defending it. And exactly this “now” has a decisive importance. Deputies joined coalition on the personal basis in August-September, and Mr. Vinsky joined the opposition not at the less personal basis. Nothing happened around it, as everybody remembers. Stories about buying deputies – it’s mere PR. Firstly, there is no single fact, confirming it and secondly if the deputy’s price is 5 million dollars, what could prevent coalition from paying it in September? Why people who according this logic did not take 5 million in September, are queuing for it now?
The answer is not in this mythical 5 million, but is qualitative changes, that had taken place in March 2007. The government stabilized the economic situation and prepared a range of reforms, which were more than once mentions in Prime Minister’s reports. It had started in the middle of April. For large and medium business constituting the NSNU and BUT factions it was incommensurably more profitable, than 5 million dollars in cash. That was investments, VTO, stocks to IPO … As an alternative their leader offered them a radical opposition and involving country in a new crisis. In business-logic it meant losses. How was it possible to reduce them? No imperative mandate exists in the Supreme Rada. After all it’s illogical. For a example, what could it mean if 5 parties won? Should their leaders sit and negotiate without taking into consideration the deputies’ opinion?
It means, there is no other way out, like being in elections. No reasons to dissolve the Supreme Rada. But President has a privilege – to issue an order. It’s to render Yulia Vladimirovna her due, she brilliantly used it, having only such allies like Mr.Lutsenko, with virtual “People’s self-defence”, who needed a deputy’s mandate to avoid a criminal proceeding and Mr.Balogu and Mr.Kirilenko, who were given complete control over compiling the list of “Our Ukraine”. Apparently, last year they did not have it.
It’s clear that in such lay out the key to the situation is in the Constitutional Court, which must give its legal appraisal of the current situation. In case the Constitutional Court acknowledges the president’ order is unconstitutional, the government can offer a compromise. Yulia Vladimirovna keeps silent. It’s just a question now when the Constitutional Court will give its judgment. For Timoshenko is a matter of principal, that it happened after new elections. She’ll then get an opportunity to form her own coalition on the very same ground, which she is criticizing now so fiercely.
President has “dummed” himself in any case, he really gave up for lost his carrier. If Timosheko can draw as far as presidential elections, it will be an opposition “Timoshenko-Yanukovych”. In case she can’t, she will loose nothing, the present president will take all this negative on himself. But instead of economic growth, reforms and stability Ukraine will be again in a new crisis for at least for months. And Yulia Vladimirivna, as a master of life in crisis, will keep for herself a chance of presidency. During two years of successful Yanukovych’s Cabmin if everything went like it was the marginalizing of Timoshenko which could be already observed in September last year would continue. Her fortune would be unenviable, like for example Natalia Vetrenko’s (from 20% in 1998 till 2% in 2002). That is why Timoshenko will be provoking the crisis, president will be scaring Timoshenko and his own fears and on rapidity of the Constitutional Court only depends how soon this chaos comes to end.
Igor Shuvalov.
Consultant. Worked with V. Pinchuk, V. Medvedchuk in Ukraine, participated in several election campaigns, i.e. Leonid Kuchma's campaign in 1999, Victor Yanukovich's campaign in 2004 and one of Natalya Vitrenko in 2006. At present is closely connected with the the Ministry of Ukraine.
