After anxious Sunday Serbia and the whole world learnt the Serbians’ will. In the second round the present president, the leader of democrats Boris Tadic won, having picked over 50%. Another candidate, ultra-nationalist opposition leader Tomislav Nikolic collected rather less than 50%.
All the world’s media turned the struggle into a simple, even simplified scheme: ‘a pro-European democrat’ Tadic vs. ‘pro-Russian nationalist’ Nikolic. But the real choice, which Serbia had to make, consisted not in this. The question on collaboration with Russia was important for both candidates propagandistically and psychologically, but this is a question of minor importance if to talk about the real policy. It was obvious that regardless of who will win, Serbia will still demand for Russia’s energy resources and to a certain degree for Russia’s foreign-policy support. Thus, Serbia elected: openness or isolation, with Europe or without it.
We won’t be absorbed now in abstract philosophic disputes, whether there is special ‘Russian way’ and ‘Russian civilization’ and whether they are suitable for ethnically and confessionally close countries. Let’s set to a concrete political analysis.
To begin with Nikolic. He is really a staunch Serbian nationalist. And this is rather a correct political assessment of his views. But one should not equate words ‘Serbian nationalist’ to words ‘adherent of Russia’. First, foreign policy of the Serbian nationalism supposes Serbia to be a regional superpower (now it is rather called ‘leader of the region’). But for Russian (and Soviet) politicians the Balkans were a point of force application in their global competition with other powers. Eventually, on the record, collision of interests and foreign-policy conceptions is inevitable.
Loud assurances of eternal friendship with Russia are more particularly mere a short-term political interest of irresponsible populists. Besides that, quite often opposition leaders having come to power, change their election slogans to rather real foreign-political steps, which have little in common with their election program. Somehow or other, they began acting according to the logic of geopolitical and geo-economical situation, national interests and foreign-political conceptions.
If to regard Serbia from this point of view, it will become evident, that the country, which is situated like this, and always considered itself to be a part of Europe, just cannot do without it. This is just Tadic’s position; and he has never concealed it. And what is more, his position lets draw together positions of the EU and Russia. Both parties will support Belgrad and minimize detriment after separation of the territory, which now seems to be inevitable.
Long-term strategic, both political and economical, interest of Russia, is stability in the region and equal, mutually beneficial collaboration with all countries of the region without detriment to the third side. Just this will guarantee fulfillment of energy contracts.
What is more, it is not advantageous for Russia if its name is associate with new conflicts; and this is just to what the realization of Nikolic’s plan will lead. Nikolic wants to hold Kosovo by all means; and even to return amicably Serbia territories, which are, according to radicals, primordially Serbian, but now are included in other neighbor states. Support of these plans will involve Russia in conflict both with Balkan countries and with Brussels and Washington.
If Nikolic became a president, Russia would get not a true ally, but a fickle treacherous client, who would try to use contradictions in relations of Moscow with Brussels and Washington, as it had been in the time of Milosevic. All initiatives of the radical candidate were evidence of that. He planned to build Russian military base on the place of one of few health resorts in the country and to join Serbia to the union of Russian and Belarus. I won’t discuss now military aspect of the first proposal, but psychological atmosphere of Serbian-Russian relations would be spoilt for a long time.
Besides that Serbia, having found itself in isolation, could reckon only on Russia, whereas most Serbians count on European standards.
Now, after Tadic’s election and signing of certain documents on oil and gas collaboration, Russia’s position both in Serbia and in the Balkans are good enough. Now much depends on how both sides will keep these agreements, on degree of social responsibility of Russian business. Realization of these plans ensures new jobsites, reduce of unemployment, social guarantees. One should approach the situation very carefully and tactfully, thinking not only about momentary gains. At the same time one should take into account that not all, even among pro-Russian Serbians, are content with financial and organizational conditions of the agreement. Russian business should help Serbia, help Tadic to eliminate stagnation and poverty, which are quite burning problems in the country. This would be the best policy and the best promotion of Russia’s image.
February, 2008 is a good time to remember negative experience of relations betweem Moscow and Belgrade. Sixty years ago sharp a party and state conflict between USSR and Yugoslavia burst out. Although the leader of Yugoslavia Josip Broz Tito just after the Second World War was considered to be Stalin’s most faithful ally, all resulted in a face-off of many years, which was over only after the breakup of the USSR and Yugoslavia. That countries and parties, and so the more that leaders don’t exist , but schemes of that times are still in the political consciousness.
Opposition ‘Russia vs. EU’, ‘pro-Russia politician’ vs. ‘pro-Western’, which is so popular in mass media and which penetrates in minds of our political class, is not only far from the reality, but brings any use neither to Russia nor to Europe. Russia is interested in collaboration with the EU, and the EU is interested in collaboration with Russia. In spite of all contradictions. Serbia is to become for both sides a partner in though competitive, but collaboration. And Serbia needs collaboration with both Russia and the EU to overcome the lag and not to enter a new crisis.
Entry into NATO for post-Yugoslavian countries is not a display of hostility towards Russia, but a solution of their own geo-political and military and strategic problems. The Balkans aspire to change a foreign-political paradigm, that is to become a true part of Europe instead of being the front line of the Cold War or a powder keg.