This week is to continue the so-called pre-election campaign. 2007-2008 transition has not still taken distinct shapes. It cannot be excluded, that before the very moment of the presidential elections we will not learn anything new about the program of activities of a new president. There are some signs that the future president understands the necessity of some liberalization of the regime (certainly, within definite limits). At the same time, until the transition comes over, one would hardly relax the vigilance towards unauthorized initiatives.
Public discussions around the transition process are held mainly in a regime of projection; there is neither development nor competition of different recommendations and programs. Probably, the congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs where our new president is to be present, will give impetus to a new approach. The logic of the competition specified by the nature of the parliamentarian elections may force to lay stress on the very procedure of the elections. The logic of the effective reformism will suggest to the government the necessity to become leaders and developers of new reforms.
Inertia of the struggle and complexes, which have been fostered during this struggle may reveal themselves during the discussion between the Central Election Committee and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. The OSCE invited the leadership of the organization in Moscow to discuss early arrival of observers.
There is no desire to dictate one’s will to auditors in business. Our politicians prefer to be principled in this matter, although it seems that there is no reason for fear. Prevalence of the present first vice premier in news programs? One need not live in Russia to fix it, but one can hardly find anything wrong about this fact. Peculiar numbers in different districts? Yes, it probably will be so, but observers will not be able to record anything. One should not expect any centralized violations. The turnout will be within reason; and figures of the ‘natural’ poll will be convenient for almost all.
But all this doesn’t mean that the groundless confrontation will be overcome.
On Monday the results of the presidential elections in Serbia will be announced that will fix the victory of Boris Tadic, leader of the Democratic Party. In the result on Tuesday one will sign an agreement that Serbia will join the EU, and on Saturday Kosovo won’t get a reason to declare its independence (one promised to do it on February 9 in case of victory of Nikolic).
But all this is just intermediate results; transition processes in Serbia haven’t finished yet. It is to wait for being accepted in the EU for several years. The Hague Tribunal demands for extradition of former leaders of the Republic of Serbian Krajina; the fact that they haven’t captured yet can become an obstacle on the Serbia’s way to Europe. To seize them the ruling coalition has to act more in coordination to control the army and special services. And the ruling coalition is to face new ordeals.
The premier minister Vojislav Kostunica did not support openly his partner not from bitchiness, but to reduce the gap between him and his ultra-nazi rival and not to let his role to be derogated. Besides that, when soon (e.g. after the meeting of ministers of foreign affairs of the EU countries on February 18) Kosovo declares unilaterally its independence, Kostunica should have the most freedom of action. Discussion how to respond to this can split the coalition or lead to change in its membership (a block of moderate nationalists of kostunica and ultra-nationalists of Nikolic and Social party) or to new elections.
To avoid the split of coalition (and in the case of split not to let its reformation) the EU will have to make rather radical concessions to Serbia. Otherwise the present situation, in which the EU and the USA have driven themselves by their extremely undeliberate position on Kosovo, will turn into further political instability and reinforcement of nationalistic sentiments in the republic.
It is interesting to note unexpectedly sensible position of our diplomacy, which supports the present president and keeps relations with the premier and the opposition. If the policy concerning our nearest neighbors is made just as knowingly, we won’t see so many ‘anti-orange’ statements within the country and so many anti-Russian sentiments abroad.
This Tuesday is to determine the situation in the USA for the years immediately ahead. State poll (along with figures of the primary) can say much about future candidates of two parties and, probably, about their chances.
In the beginning of the campaign two democratic leaders were known, but the situation with the republicans was uncertain; now the situation became counter. The republicans got a sole leader whose status will be finally confirmed on ‘Big Tuesday’. The struggle between democratic leaders (Clinton and Obama), probably, will go on after February 5. Well, there is some possibility that Clinton will defeat John McCain, but Obama, who theoretically can become a democratic leader, will hardly become a democratic president.
On February 5-6 in Geneva the WTO General Council meeting will take place. It is expected that the issue on Ukraine`s joining WTO will be studied at this session. At that one can speak about possibility of free trade with the EU (at the moment Moldova is the only country of the CIS, which already has it). The process of accepting won’t be single-stage, but there is no doubts that Russia will be the second. The negotiations last so long that new members have already appeared, so that one needed to agree the joining with them before to draw up common documents. The Russian and Ukrainian governments had an agreement that whatever country entered WTO the first, it would not hinder another one. One can’t expect it from the present Ukrainian leadership.
Requests can be expressed in two forms: officially and not. Officially ones can concern customs and quotas; unofficial ones can relate to any other matters. For example, to remove a mediator from gas supply, but at the same time to reduce the price or increase the rate for its transportation and storing.
Well, the Ukrainian president and premier-minister can play different games. Probably, one will know more about Yushchenko’s motivation’s during his visit to Moscow (this and the next week).
On Friday Russian President Vladimir Putin will receive Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who made a lot to lead out Russian-Polish relations from the freezing point. The situation can become more complicate after negotiations of Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski in the USA, where the governments discussed placement of American anti-missile defense elements and NATO’s anti-aircraft defense on the territory of Poland. This was, probably, discussed during the recent Sikorski’s visit to Moscow, although it could become more necessary after clumsy and unseasonable statements of the general Shamanov about possible establishment of missiles of the latest generation in the Kaliningrad area.
Whether the burst of tension will be eliminated during the negotiations or it will lead to a new freezing of the relations, will depend on a political will of the leaderships and efficiency of diplomacy of both countries.
During this week intermediate results of the recent events in Chad will become clearer. It should be reminded that there the opposition supported by the government of Sudan has taken the most part of the capital under its control. Civil war in this country is quite a permanent state. In recent years it is bound up with Arabisan terror in neighbor Sudan. The government of Sudan supports the armed opposition in Chad; and at the same time the government of Chad supports the armed opposition in Sudan. Well, Africa remains to be the most unstable continent, which demonstrates its inability to be represented by any constant member in the Security Council under no circumstances. Even most stable and relatively responsible regimes seem so only against a background of their neighbors. The process of transition to another ruler in the SAR, Morocco and Egypt is still a high-risk period.
The case of Yukos is one of the spheres, which the incompleteness of transition processes in Russia can affect adversely. The scandalous situation with former Yukos Vice President Vasily Aleksanyan, which can be compared with scandals around Guantanamo and Abu Gharaib, has already brought to some indulgence of the regime, but hasn’t lead to a quite obvious discontinuance of persecution of a terminally ill person. One can only hope that the situation will change within the next few weeks. On the other hand, for mass discharge of political prisoners one needed that on December 10, 1986 one of them, Anatoly Marchenko, died after 117 days of a hunger-strike.
